Ein gutes Dutzend Megatrends definieren Jahr für Jahr das Zukunftsinstitut und Swissfuture, die Schweizerische Vereinigung für Zukunftsforschung. Welche dieser Trends werden uns in diesem Jahr besonders beschäftigen und warum ist Zukunftsforschung und -monitoring für die – betriebliche – Weiterbildungsbranche so wichtig?
Joël Ch. Wuethrich
Die Zukunftsforschung gewinnt bei der Definition der Unternehmens- und Marketingziele eine immer grössere Bedeutung. Denn Zukunftsforschung ist eine Wissenschaftsdisziplin, die sich aus Statistik, Wahrscheinlichkeitslehre, Kulturwissenschaft, Systemtheorie und einer Vielzahl anderer Fachbereiche zusammensetzt. Es geht um die Analyse und längerfristige Prognose von Wandlungsprozessen. Eine Aufgabe der klassischen Zukunftsforschung ist es, Orientierungs- und Entscheidungshilfen für Management, Politik, Verwaltung und Wissenschaft bereitzustellen (Quellen: Swissfuture, Zukunftsinstitut.de). Zukunftsforschung bezieht sich – so betonen die Fachleute auf diesem Gebiet – auf Elemente seriöser Trendforschung, ist aber mit ihr nicht identisch: In der Zukunftsforschung geht es um die mittel- und langfristigen Auswirkungen von Veränderungsbewegungen in einem grösseren, ganzheitlichen Rahmen. Bei der Trendforschung geht es eher um einen mittelfristigen Horizont von fünf bis zehn Jahren. Aktuell kann man mithilfe von Big Data und vielen Ergebnissen immer deutlichere Prognosen machen. Seriöse Zukunftsforschung nimmt jedoch nicht nur quantitative Qualitätskriterien unter die Lupe, sondern auch qualitative Aspekte.
Wichtig zur Festlegung von Unternehmenszielen
Die Basis einer Zukunftsforschung beziehungsweise eines Zukunftsmonitorings bilden das gerichtete Beobachten bestimmter Frühwarnindikatoren sowie die ungerichtete Suche nach Anzeichen für bedeutsame Entwicklungen. Durch die Auswertung von Medien und dem Mediennutzungsverhalten der jeweiligen Zielgruppen, durch Desk-Research (Auswertung von Statistiken, empirischen Daten, Publikationen internationaler Organisationen und so weiter) sowie durch sogenannte Alltags-Ethnologie (qualitative Sozialforschung) wird das Umfeld – gleichsam einem Radar – abgescannt. Sämtliche aufschluss- und einflussreichen Zeichen werden anschliessend näher überprüft und durch die gezielte Suche weiterer Informationen vertieft sowie kategorisiert. So werden Hintergründe, Ursachen und ihre Verknüpfungen mit anderen Entwicklungen und Implikationen analysiert (Quelle: Büro für Zukunftsfragen). Der Monitoringprozess richtet sich auf einige hauptsächliche Bereiche, die in ihrer Gesamtheit unsere externe Umwelt vollständig beschreiben: die Gesellschaft (Demografie, Bildung, Werte, Lebensstile), die Politik (Gesetzgebung, Staatsformen, Parteien), Wirtschaft (Arbeitswelten, Produktentwicklung, Märkte, Globalisierung, Unternehmensführung), Technologie und Umwelt (Nachhaltigkeit, neue Energiekonzepte, spezifische Umweltprobleme, Ressourcenverknappung).
Zukunftsforschung und -monitoring hilft also Unternehmen – seien es KMU oder grosse Konzerne –, die Unternehmensziele mittel- und langfristig zu bestimmen. Futuristinnen und Futuristen und Zukunftsforschende können zudem mit den Erkenntnissen auch die sogenannten Megatrends bestimmen. Regelmässige Leserinnen und Leser wissen: New Work, Digitalisierung, Gesundheit, Mobilität, Wissenskultur, Urbanisierung, Konnektivität, Urbanisierung, Neo-Ökologie (Ressourcenverknappung und Ökologisierung), Globalisierung und Individualisierung, Beschleunigung durch Innovation und Technologie, Sicherheit, die «Silver Society» (auch Aging Society) und «Gender Shift» (Wandel durch Aufbrechen von Geschlechterstereotypen und Rollenmustern) – das sind alles sogenannte Megatrends, die bereits 2019 durch die Zukunftsforschenden und Zukunftsinstitute definiert wurden. Für 2020 wurden von vielen Fachleuten fünf Megatrends zu den wohl einschneidendsten erkoren: Individualität, Wissenskultur, Neo-Ökologie, Silver Society und schliesslich der vielleicht einschneidendste Megatrend: die Konnektivität.
Vorsprung dank Wissenskultur
Immer wichtiger im (beruflichen) Alltag ist die Wissenskultur. In unserer komplexen, digitalisierten Welt ist Wissen fluide, deshalb rücken vor allem implizite Fähigkeiten in den Fokus, die uns erlauben, agil zu sein und auf Veränderungen und Überraschungen zu reagieren. Ganzheitliches, systemisches Denken, Kontextbildung und Beobachtung zweiter Ordnung werden ebenso zu Kernkompetenzen wie zutiefst (zwischen-)menschliche Qualitäten. Da müssen die Weiterbildungsinstitute nachziehen. Neue Lehrgänge, Kurse, Seminare und Angebote sind nötig, um die Bedürfnisse der heranbrechenden New-Work-Ära zu stillen. Die Bildungsmanager/innen sind gefordert. Moderne Ausbildungen wie beispielsweise der Lehrgang zum Betrieblichen Mentor/zur Betrieblichen Mentorin mit eidg. Fachausweis (Tipp: Lernwerkstatt Olten) oder Techniker/in in Energie und Umwelt der TEKO Basel kommen immer mehr ins Spiel und werden von den Bildungsmanager/innen empfohlen. Daniel Herzog, Geschäftsführer der Lernwerkstatt Olten: «Betriebl. Mentoren/-innen sind gefragter denn je. Sie agieren kompetent als Berater/in, Coach und Trainer/in und nehmen das Unternehmen als ganzheitliche, sich stetig entwickelnde Organisation wahr. Sie verfügen über ein erweitertes Profil, um Organisationen für die Zukunft fit zu machen. Dabei haben sie den betrieblichen Nutzen im Fokus.» Herzog betont zudem, dass «Führungspersonen, aber auch Ausbilder/innen lernen müssen, Menschen zu beraten, zu begleiten und zu fördern.» Führungspersönlichkeiten seien ausserdem nun auch Coaches, die Mitarbeitende zur Selbstreflexion befähigen. Deshalb sind Ausbildungen zum Coach stark im Trend. In Aus- und Weiterbildungen wie beispielsweise www.coach-werden.ch holt man sich das nötige Rüstzeug. Das ist auch dringend nötig, wie Daniel Herzog betont: «Noch verharren viele Führungspersonen in ihren alten Mustern. Klassische Führungsmodelle haben aber ausgedient, und die Begleitung der Mitarbeitenden zu mehr Autonomie verlangt nach Führung auf Augenhöhe.»
Wichtig für die Arbeitswelt: Konnektivität
Die Welt wird immer vernetzter und ohne vernetztes Denken und Handeln ist man heute in der Berufswelt verloren beziehungsweise macht man keine Karriere. «Wir leben in einem Netzwerk von Netzwerken. Dieser Umstand fordert uns technologisch, er fordert uns aber vor allem sozial, in unserer Haltung und unserem Denken. Das Zusammenspiel zwischen Menschen und Technologie, der Umgang mit den neuen Möglichkeiten wird sich in den 2020er-Jahren richtungsweisend entwickeln. Wenn sich herauskristallisiert, wie und wo wir Technologie wirklich effizient einsetzen können und wollen, ergeben sich hier enorme Potenziale zur Effizienzsteigerung und für neue Geschäftsmodelle», heisst es in einem Papier des Zukunftsinstitutes. Der Trend zum Internet of Things (IoT) macht sich überall bemerkbar. So auch in der Welt des New Work.
Neo-Ökologie greift in jeden Bereich unseres Alltags ein
Sehr stark im Trend ist auch die Neo-Ökologie, der in jeden Bereich unseres Alltags hineinreicht. Ob persönliche Kaufentscheidungen, gesellschaftliche Werte oder Unternehmensstrategie – selbst wenn nicht immer auf den ersten Blick erkennbar, entwickelt er sich nicht zuletzt aufgrund technologischer Innovationen mehr und mehr zu einem der Treiber unserer Zeit. Der Megatrend sorgt nicht nur für eine Neuausrichtung der Werte der globalen Gesellschaft, der Kultur und der Politik. Er verändert unternehmerisches Denken und Handeln in seinen elementaren Grundfesten.
Silver Society und die «Umkodierung der Wirtschaft»
Ein weiterer Megatrend ist die Entwicklung der sogenannten Silver Society. Alles konzentriere sich im Moment auf neue Technologien. Die älter werdende Gesellschaft steht dadurch im Schatten und wird völlig unterschätzt. Die Silver Society bedeutet eine «Umkodierung der Wirtschaft». Menschen in der zweiten Lebenshälfte haben eine andere Sicht auf Leistung, Wachstum und Innovation als die Jüngeren. Zudem schätzen sie Vorgänge in Unternehmen anders ein. Diese Routiniers agieren mit einer überragenden Weitsicht und Erfahrung. Die Alterung der Gesellschaft wird oft als Problem betrachtet, sie kann aber, gerade in Unternehmen, zu ihrer Vitalisierung beitragen.
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